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The U.S. is not currently experiencing stagflation, and it’s not going to over the next couple of years. The debate about stagflation is going to intensify over the next few months as growth in consumer prices continues to accelerate. However, there are a ton of temporary factors behind the acceleration and recent gains in the CPIare concentrated in the most volatile components. This is likely not sustainable; it is attributable to the reopening of the economy.
The secular decline by Treasury bond yields since 1982 has been accompanied by a secular climb in the ratio of private and public non financial-sector debt to GDP.
High yield bond issuance and newly rated loans from high-yield issuers have soared thus far in 2021. Layers of fiscal stimulus on top of monetary stimulus have boosted risk tolerance. The most stimulus since WWII might yet drive private-sector leverage up to heights that significantly increase long-term debt repayment risk.
Markets now fret over the possibility that massive amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus may damage future financial conditions and economic performance. An exceptionally strong reading on January’s retail sales and the continued upbeat tone...
Capital structure matters. All else the same, credit quality benefits—or default risk is lower than otherwise—the longer is the term to maturity of outstanding debt...
The latest market data from Weekly Market Outlook. View full WMO here...
On 6 January, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data indicated that monthly total direct remittances from Nigerians based abroad fell to their lowest level in three...
On 6 January, Brazil's Confederação Nacional do Comércio de Bens, Serviços e Turismo (CNC), the confederation of commerce, released survey results showing that consumer indebtedness reached record levels in 2020...
Analyses from Moody’s Capital Markets
Research, Inc. (CMR) focus on explaining
signals from the credit and equity markets. The publications address whether market signals, in the opinion of the group’s analysts, accurately reflect the risks and investment opportunities associated with issuers and sectors. CMR research thus complements the fundamentally...
Not only has the market value of U.S. common stock set a new record high, so have the core pretax profits of U.S. corporations...
Many of the explanations as to why the banks haven’t been able to implement the scheme have been well documented and...
On 28 October, the Government of South Africa (Ba1 negative) released its Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) for fiscal year 2020...
The unfolding second wave of the pandemic threatens the fragile economic recovery across G-20 economies. Improvement in financial conditions has stalled in the euro area, and is slowing in emerging markets...
IFRS16 is the relatively new accounting standard that removes the distinction between an operating lease and a finance lease...
